Modelling Changes in Land Use Land Cover in the Sudan Savannah Ecological Zone of Northwestern Nigeria

Climate change is one of the most global environmental concerns in the 21st century. This study modelled the historical changes and future projections of Land Use Land Cover (LULC) in the Sudan Savanna ecological zone of Northwestern Nigeria. The research analyzed multi-temporal Landsat imagery (2004, 2014, and 2024) to quantify past trends and projected future scenarios for 2035, 2045, and 2055. A supervised classification approach was employed to generate LULC maps, while CA-Markov modelling integrated with MOLUSCE plugin in QGIS was used for future projections. Model performance was rigorously validated using Neural Network learning curves and Pontius’ multiple-resolution budget analysis. Results revealed a consistent increase in bare surface from 50.7% in 2004 to 53.36% in 2024, with a corresponding decline in vegetation cover from 48.56% to 45.77%. Projections indicate continued and accelerated vegetation loss, with bare surface becoming overwhelmingly dominant by 2055, especially in the central and eastern part of the study area. This study provides credible, spatially explicit evidence of ongoing land degradation and anthropogenic activities in the Sudan Savanna zone. The findings underscore the urgent need for sustainable land management, reforestation, and climate adaptation strategies to mitigate projected environmental risks and enhance resilience in Northwestern Nigeria.